Could the Democrats regain their supermajorities in the 2016 legislative elections? Not likely.
Just one of the six Senate seats that will be vacated next year by term limits is held by a Republican, GOP floor leader Bob Huff, who is now running for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.
GOP leaders have recruited first-term Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang to hold the seat while Democrats have recruited Sukhee Kang, the former mayor of Irvine who has moved into the 29th Senate District to run. But it has a strong Republican tilt in voter registration.
Four of the others are safe Democratic districts. The only potential uncertainty is the 27th Senate District in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, now represented by Democrat Fran Pavley.
With only a 40 percent to 32 percent Democratic voter registration edge, there is a remote possibility that the 27th District could shift parties, but if it did, the Democratic majority would shrink, not grow.
Democrats’ chances seem better in the Assembly, with six of the 15 termed-out members being Republicans. But none of the districts to be vacated (including Chang’s) is likely to change partisan hands, at least at this juncture, due to strong GOP registration margins.
From a partisan standpoint, therefore, 2016 looks like a status quo year, and with modification of term limits, the mandatory turnover that’s been a feature of legislative politics will slow markedly. After next year, the next time an Assembly member will be termed out is 2024.
In 2016 and perhaps beyond, the biggest legislative election battles will pit Democrats against one another for Senate seats. Unions and other liberal groups will back candidates against those with business support, replicating this year’s $10 million special election shootout between Democrats Susan Bonilla and Steve Glazer.
Next year’s biggie will likely be a duel between Democratic Assemblyman Bill Dodd, a former Republican, and former Assemblywoman Mariko Yamada, a Democrat and labor ally, in the 3rd Senate District, centered in Solano County but including all or portions of five other counties.
(See next story.)
…In Yolo/Solano/Napa Counties
Less than halfway into his first Assembly term, Napa Democrat Bill Dodd is jumping into the race for the 3rd Senate District.
Dodd formally announced Monday that he is running to succeed Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis, in the Northern California seat encompassing Napa, Solano and most of Yolo counties. Wolk is termed out in 2016.
Jumping between houses was common under the old term limit system, but new rules that allow lawmakers to serve 12 years total were seen as encouraging members to stay put and build power. Dodd may lose two years in the Legislature if his bid is successful, but he said he sees more opportunity for leadership with the smaller size of the Senate.
“It’s something that I’m willing to risk, because I didn’t come to Sacramento to not get things done,” he said.
Dodd, a longtime Napa County supervisor, was elected to the Assembly in 2014 in a high-dollar affair. Business interests helped lift him over a crowded field, including Wolk’s son, Dan Wolk.
He will face former Assemblywoman Mariko Yamada, a Davis Democrat, for the Senate seat. With Republican voters scarce in the district, it’s possible that the election could come down to an intraparty battle between the liberal Yamada and Dodd, a former Republican.
Dodd said he can win with the broad appeal of his socially liberal and fiscally moderate approach, including a focus on topics like gender pay equity, more funding for California’s public universities and improved care for senior citizens.
His announcement comes with the endorsements of Wolk and local Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena.
Late Monday, Dan Wolk confirmed in an e-mail to supporters that he would make a second run at the 4th Assembly District seat being vacated by Dodd. Wolk, a Democrat, is the mayor of Davis and a deputy county counsel of Solano County.
…And in Contra Costa County, Too
Mae Cendana Torlakson, the chairwoman of the Ambrose Recreation and Park District board in Bay Point and wife of state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, announced Monday she will seek the state Assembly seat now held by Susan Bonilla.
Bonilla, of Concord, is scheduled to “term out” of that 14th District seat in 2016.
Torlakson is the corporate partnerships liaison of the Mathematics, Engineering, Science Achievement program helping educationally disadvantaged students pursue careers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. That program is administered by the University of California Department of Diversity and Engagement. She has been a UC staffer since 2000.
“I want to provide resources for business, and providing an educated, well-trained work force is an important resource,” Cendana Torlakson said Monday. And helping make a college education more affordable, she added, is needed to make that happen.
Cendana Torlakson, a Pittsburg resident, is serving her third term on the board of Ambrose, a district that operates nine parks in the unincorporated community of Bay Point and a small section of Pittsburg, and recreation services within the district. She bills herself as the first Filipina elected to office in Contra Costa County.